Dear friend

I think that three weeks into this special military performance we can have a few moments to pause and think about where we are and where nosotros get from here.

My commencement observation is this: in that location are, roughly, two main groups of people out there, those who "become it" and those who don't.  In practical terms, this is what this ways for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to reach folks who are "unreachable" (being polite here).

For the past three weeks, I have tried to deflate the US PSYOP narrative, alongside folks like Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Futurity and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama.  My health does not permit me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I need to enter something of a "temporary rest style" if I want to avert being forced into balance by my torso.

Yet I still get a daily deluge of questions from those who did non "get it" and, bluntly, I am exhausted trying to debunk the same stuff over and over and once more.

So, one final time:

In purely military terms, the picture we see now is simple: the Ukie armed forces equally a strategic instrument basically died in the first 24 hours.  And then the Russians used a modest force to featherbed and block main cities.  With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did not endeavour to enter them.  Why?  For 3 crucial reasons:

  1. they did not have the manpower needed (in Mariupol the force correlation is about one:one when it should really be 3-v:1 in favor of the attacker)
  2. they wanted to impale as few Ukrainians as possible and
  3. they did not want to flatten cities simply to take to pay for their reconstruction.

So where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are more often than not in their permanent deployment bases and they are gear up for a war against the Usa+NATO.

And if you are the type of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" enquire yourself why the Blackness Ocean Fleet did not apply its elite Naval Infantry, amphibious landing capability or its firepower (I remind you lot that all the huge harm done to the NATO base in western Ukraine was simply a unmarried salvo from i single small vessel (what the Russian phone call a "small missile ship"), probably with one (land or air based) Iskander to add some specific "punch" where needed.  If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she not apply the Black Sea Armada to the max?  Instead, she is keeping it well-nigh Odessa, ready to strike if/when needed, not only at the Ukraine, but at NATO besides (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this performance as a "special war machine performance" and not as a "war" or a "combined artillery operation".

Once again, you either "get it" or y'all don't.  It's that unproblematic, really.

So here is roughly were we are today (yesterday'due south Readovka map):

So we are likely to end up with something looking like this:

And I don't see the point of reporting how we will go from the top map to the projection to a higher place accident by blow, boondocks by boondocks.

The real question that comes to my mind looking at the projection above is non "how do nosotros get in that location?" merely "where do nosotros become from there once nosotros make it?".  Correct now this decision fourth dimension is withal probably a couple of weeks into the future.

Any may exist the case, I have decided to stop posting updates every day (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternating analyses days and open thread days .

So from now on, expect analyses only every 2d twenty-four hours (unless big events happen).

Adjacent, I don't run into any other way to cease the US+UK+PL to intervene other than by means of a Iskander/Kalibr strike not "just" upon any target in the Ukraine, but also strikes on whatever NATO facility is central to the current war preparations by NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I promise that I am wrong and that the US+UK+PL are non as terminally blinded by their hatred of Russia every bit to chance an bodily full scale war in Europe.

But I have to admit that this hope is small and getting smaller by the day.

Information technology is therefore quite possible, mayhap even likely, that in the not likewise distant future we will see Usa and Russian armed services personnel meeting in combat.  If that happens, not simply will the risks of a fullscale nuclear war go sharply upwards, merely information technology would place me personally in an impossible situation: I would be a guest of the USA ("Green Card" – I simply have a Swiss Passport) while my country of ethnic origin would exist at war with the Usa.

I have therefore taken the post-obit decision: if at that place is a war in Europe, I will continue to cover it until 1) Russian and US soldiers encounter in boxing and/or 2) a nuclear strike happens anywhere.  If we reach either of these points, then this will non only prove that the Saker blog failed in its main mission (avoid state of war) only it will too place me personally in an impossible state of affairs.

If either of the two events happen, I volition then "freeze" the web log until the state of war stops.

I don't like to have to take the two decisions above, in fact I very much regret them both, but things are quickly getting out of hand and I need to prepare, both the blog and my personal life.

Question: think the Israeli state of war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this war by a humongous margin, and the US+Israel had to surrender to Hezbollah terms.  Non only that, but this war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than it was before.  Yet it began by a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to go so far overboard and basically hammer Lebanese republic with everything they had for over a month.

I meet a parallel hither.

No, I do not retrieve that the Russian military functioning has run into any major bug, by and big what happened in these three weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economical terms, in that location is this large argue at present about the Russian gold and foreign currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist.  I volition permit much smarter people than I bargain with that.

I too think that the Russians knew in advance what kind of sanctions the W would introduce sooner or subsequently, but I call up that the Kremlin was taken by surprise at the speed and telescopic of the sanctions.  How much of a trouble is that?  Well, I generally favor western sanctions against Russia because they force Russia to built a sovereign economy and because they de-couple Russian federation from the institutions controlled by the Empire of Lies.

Here, over again, time will tell and much smarter people and so I tin can offer their insights into this.

However, I call up that most people in Russian federation are stunned by what is a full-scale "detest state of war" on Russia which we can phone call the "Cancel Russia war".  In essence, the Westward did throw everything it had at Russian federation short of a overt military assailment and knowing the geniuses in power in the U.s.+UK+PL I would non fifty-fifty put it past them to try to fight Russian federation straight.

And so what began as a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Abolish Russia" world war.

How could I blame folks in Russia for non being able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was built-in in the heart of Europe and lived all my life in the Westward could not imagine these ruling classes to be so absolutely out of touch with reality?

Again, to exist clear, Russians were not "naive" to "trust" the Westward about anything, simply they indeed assumed that the ruling class of the USA would not decide to blow up the planet economically and fifty-fifty maybe militarily because it would hurt the interests of the US ruling class.  So if everyone is "dumbshit stupid" information technology is inappreciably the Russians, but rather the folks who rule over the U.s. (and, therefore, over the European union too).

There is besides this Russian expression: "y'all should count your chicks in the Fall".  Permit'due south encounter by twelvemonth'due south terminate who was really dumbshit stupid and who will have prevailed.

Now I think that it is fourth dimension for all of united states, myself included, to let go of the thought "no, they tin can't maybe by THAT delusional" and presume that yes, they are really THAT delusional.

I also encounter another parallel: remember how the USA forced Nihon into a war and then wrapped itself in the mantle of an innocent victim and declared "this day shall live in infamy"?

That is exactly what the USA just pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might exist just as immense.

But there is a big divergence here: Nippon could not meaningfully strike at the continental USA.  Russia very much can, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Here I volition only repeat the quote past Putin which I mentioned the twenty-four hour period earlier the Russian special military operation: " if a fight is inevitable you should strike first ".  In plain English language this means that if the Russian come to the conclusion that the US is engaged in a "Desert Shield" type of operation (claim to be simply defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale footing invasion) and then yous can exist sure that Russian federation will strike Eu airports, seaports or any other facility used to prepare an assault on Russia.

In fact, if the United states/NATO do decide to attack Russia, this will be the final, nuclear, stop for the western civilization as such.  After grand years of genocidal imperialism, ane could be forgiven for thinking that this could be a plumbing fixtures, just, end" in the "chicken coming home to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now it is in the hands of the US ruling elites.

Frankly, there is very niggling Andrei, Bernhard of myself can practise most that.  I sure have said all I have to say on this topic and, once again, some encounter information technology, others don't – and there is cipher more I tin can do to affect this ratio.

The future of our planet now depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the self-preservation instincts of United states ruling class (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Only time will tell.  All nosotros tin exercise now is pray and place our trust and lives into God'due south hands.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to you all, my friends and readers.  I all the same promise for the best, but I have to prepare for the worst, and I want to be fully candid with all of you.

Kind regards

Andrei

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